Glossary

What is expected value (+EV) in sports betting?

Last updated 2026-07-04

Expected value is the average profit or loss of a bet if it were repeated many times: (win probability x amount won) minus (loss probability x stake). A +EV bet has positive expectation. Finding prices whose implied probability understates true probability is the entire game.

Worked example: you estimate a team wins 50% of the time and a book offers +110. EV per $100 = 0.50 x $110 - 0.50 x $100 = $5, so the bet is +5% EV. The same team at -120 is -4.5% EV even though it is the same 50% opinion: EV lives in the price, not the pick.

The hard part is the probability estimate. Market-derived estimates (devigged sharp consensus) produce small, reliable edges against slow books; model-derived estimates can produce larger edges and larger self-deception. Closing line value is the audit that tells you which you have.

At scale, +EV betting is a scanning problem: comparing every offered price against fair across books and markets, continuously. That is precisely what /intelligence/value and /edges/ precompute on each refresh.

Compute it with the API

curl "https://api.theoddsapi.com/intelligence/value?sport_key=baseball_mlb" \
  -H "x-api-key: YOUR_API_KEY"

Value bets versus vig-removed consensus, precomputed. Business tier. Free key in minutes.