Daily Line Movement Report
The largest consensus move of the day belonged to maybe, moving from +225 to -144 in maybe @ BIG Academy (Esports Esports): a 29.9 point swing in implied probability confirmed by 5 of 5 tracked books. maybe flipped from underdog to favorite against the market open in maybe @ BIG Academy.
Data: pre-game odds snapshots captured September 30, 2026 (12:00am to 11:59pm PT) across 30+ sportsbooks. Published October 1, 2026. Past editions.
Median move across all tracked books, opening price to closing price. A move only makes this table when at least 5 books moved and the median shift is 2.5+ points of implied probability.
| Game | Side that drew the money | Open → Close (median) | Move | Books confirming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| maybe @ BIG Academy (Esports Esports) | maybe | +225 → -144 | +29.9 pts | 5 of 5 |
| BetBoom Team @ Team Yandex (Esports Esports) | Team Yandex | -312 → -500 | +7.6 pts | 7 of 7 |
| Texas State Bobcats @ San Diego State Aztecs (NCAAF) | Texas State Bobcats | -195 → -278 | +7.5 pts | 19 of 20 |
| Real Madrid @ Hapoel Tel-Aviv (Euroleague) | Real Madrid | -110 → -143 | +6.5 pts | 17 of 19 |
| Lavked @ MASONIC (Esports Esports) | Lavked | -196 → -244 | +5.2 pts | 6 of 9 |
| Team Nemesis @ HOTU (Esports Esports) | Team Nemesis | +112 → -110 | +5.0 pts | 8 of 10 |
| aimclub @ Next UP (Esports Esports) | aimclub | -333 → -450 | +4.9 pts | 4 of 5 |
| HyperSpirit @ INFURITY Gaming (Esports Esports) | HyperSpirit | -161 → -192 | +4.1 pts | 3 of 5 |
Implied probability points, median across up to 20 books per market.
| Game | Market | Open → Close (median) | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| McNeese State Cowboys @ LSU Tigers (NCAAF) | Spread (LSU Tigers) | -48.5 → -53.5 | 5 |
| McNeese State Cowboys @ LSU Tigers (NCAAF) | Spread (McNeese State Cowboys) | 48.5 → 53.5 | 5 |
| Real Madrid @ Hapoel Tel-Aviv (Euroleague) | Spread (Real Madrid) | 1.5 → -2 | 8 |
| Real Madrid @ Hapoel Tel-Aviv (Euroleague) | Spread (Hapoel Tel-Aviv) | -1.5 → 2 | 8 |
| BC Olympiakos Piraeus @ Virtus Bologna (Euroleague) | Total | 168.5 → 171.5 | 7 |
| Seattle Kraken @ Calgary Flames (NHL) | Spread (Calgary Flames) | -1.5 → 1.5 | 5 |
| Buffalo Sabres @ Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL) | Spread (Buffalo Sabres) | 1.5 → -1.5 | 9 |
| Seattle Kraken @ Calgary Flames (NHL) | Spread (Seattle Kraken) | 1.5 → -1.5 | 5 |
For the headline move, the first books observed crossing half of their eventual move, at our capture cadence.
Polymarket was the first book observed crossing half of its eventual move on maybe, at 5:27am et. Next were Dafabet, Kalshi, 1xBet. The last of the 5 qualifying books to cross was Bet365 at 5:53am et, 0.4 hours behind the leader. Timing is resolution-limited by capture cadence: "first" means first observed.
Built from TheOddsAPI's own odds snapshot archive: pre-game h2h, spread, and totals prices captured across 30+ sportsbooks on a 30 second to 10 minute refresh cycle depending on sport and market. Opening and closing prices are each book's first and last pre-game capture of the day. Consensus move is the median per-book change in implied probability. Exchange odds, in-play prices, and placeholder quotes are excluded, as are tennis and cricket. Reprice timing is resolution-limited by the capture cadence: "first" means first observed. This report ranks market behavior only; graded edge performance lives in the edge case study archive.
Related reading: how to compare odds across books and why sharp lines lead the market. Want this data programmatically? Every number on this page comes from the same feed the API serves.